copyright weatherfast.com
click this to e-mail your thoughts or comments
Sept 5, 2008 - 1:30 pm It's too early to know how close Ike will come to SW Florida. A turn to the north, keeping Ike in the Atlantic seems unlikely. Looks like Ike is headed into the Gulf to me. Farrell
Sept 1, 2008 - 1:00 pm Hanna still a question mark. Staying in the Atlantic and not going into the Florida straights seems the more likely outcome, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how slow/fast Hanna moves and how weak/strong the High is that Hanna will react to. Right now it looks like a breezy, dry week for SW Florida. Farrell
August 28, 2008 - 9:20 am Interesting set-up underway. By the weekend, SW Florida will be inbetween 2 hurricanes...Gustav to the west and Hanna (expecting TD 8 to become Hanna today) to the east. Hanna may miss an opportunity to curve northward and wander/threaten Florida before a blocking high pressure moves out of the way or pushes Hanna towards Florida. Farrell
August 25, 2008 - 10:50 am Gustav will be born later today....South of the Dom. Repuplic. Farrell
August 23, 2008 Too early to get specific now, but a Tropical Wave near Trinidad could be much stronger and in the West/Central Caribbean late next week. Farrell
August 18, 2008 Well a more eastward turn of Fay is more likely now, minimizing the effects on SW Florida. Still, rainy, breezy w/ some surge in Collier....but not as bad as it could have been. My thanks to a great weather team at WINK, Scott Zedeker, Brian Monahan, Amanda McDonald and Janine Albert. Next to Charley this was our 2nd greatest moment. Farrell
August 16, 2008 Based on the steering currents, a stronger Fay tracks farther east, a weaker Fay tracks farther west. Interaction with land will determine strength which ultimately will affect the track. Still in no one knows land.....plenty of experts, but no one can honestly KNOW at this point. This is like predicting what a 2 year old is going to be when he/she grows up. You have no idea, but you will have a much better idea after high school graduation. For Fay, commencement ceremonies begin when Cuba is in it's rear view mirror (Sunday night / Monday morning?). Once away from land we should know where to put the bullseye. Farrell
August 15, 2008 Finally Fay. Expect a struggle as the center remains near land. As soon as it gets away from land, quick development is likely, probably into a major hurricane. Water is hot and upper air is near perfect for strengthening. Farrell
August 15, 2008 It looks to me that the core of the tropical wave is too close to land to allow significant development. Until it moves away from land and strenthens forecast models will not have much to grab onto so it's no wonder the models are putting "Fay" anywhere between the Gulf and the Bahamas. Pop some corn, watch and wait. Farrell
August 14, 2008 Expecting the recon mission to confirm a depression or TS Fay today or tomorrow. Worst case model for SW Florida is this one...puts system right on S. Florida on Tuesday. Most other credible models keep it in the Atlantic, farther east. Pop some corn, watch and wait. Farrell
August 13, 2008 The tropics are getting interesting. I see 3 disturbances over the Atlantic that have the potential to get stronger. The first one (farthest west) near 16.5N, 58.3W may end up near South Florida early next week. Pop some corn, watch and wait. Farrell
August 6, 2008 A upper level trough of low pressure puts us back into an anywhere anytime rainfall pattern Fri through Sunday.....some of the rain will fall early in the day and not wait until the late afternoon. The tropics look pretty quiet for the next week. Farrell
August 3, 2008 Edouard has formed to our west....not an issue for SW Florida. My hobby is following financial markets....guess is that oil futures go up now that a TS with the potential to be a H is in the gulf headed for the rigs. Right now Houston/Galveston area needs to get ready for a hit. Meanwhile, the northern extention of a weak tropical wave will be on us tomorrow, so we should get a little more rain. Farrell
July 30, 2008 Not much to say lately.....Should break out of this "earlier than usual" rainfall pattern bySunday. A weak tropical wave may be nearby on Monday/Tuesday. Farrell
July 21, 2008 Cristobal and Dolly will not bother SW Florida......good luck Brownsville. Looks like a fairly normal late July pattern this week in SW Florida. Farrell
July 12, 2008 Might get real soggy through Monday. A trough of low pressure is drifting in from North Florida. This will increase clouds and rain prospects early/late in the day. Farrell
July 9, 2008 Saharan dust is 1 mile over our head today, giving fewer/later storms and hotter temps. Bertha is not coming here....the rest of the tropics are quiet for now. I'll blog more when the action increases. Farrell
July 4, 2008 Looks like we have to wait until next week to see if Bertha is going to turn north or come closer to SW Florida. In the meantime a tropical wave south of the D. Republic may be on us by Monday. Farrell
June 3, 2008 No changes today....still looks like tropical wave brings more clouds and more rain to the SW Florida Sunday/Monday. I will be off by then. Farrell
copyright weatherfast.com