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November 9, 2009 - 12:45 pm Ida is being sheared apart as expected. SWFL may get some rain Wednesday, then cooler late Thurs into Sat AM. Farrell
November 6, 2009 - 9:45 pm Ida may strengthen before entering the Gulf of Mexico, but wind shear should disrupt it once it is in the Gulf. SWFL can still see clouds and rain from a weakened, sheared system. In fact the west to east shear could push the rain toward us while the actual center stays to the west. Farrell
October 13, 2009 - 1:45 pm A cold front arrives Friday night. Lows in the 50's are on the way by Monday morning. Farrell
August 26, 2009 - 10:45 am Tropical Storm Danny forms, no threat to SW Florida Farrell
Augus 19, 2009 - 7:25 am Extra clouds and some rain from the remnants of Ana (as a tropical wave) today as Bill stays away. Farrell
Augus 16, 2009 - 3:25 pm Feeling good about Ana and Bill today. Exact destination unknown, but neither looks like they are going to be steered directly at SW Fla. Farrell
Augus 15, 2009 - 11:25 am For the next few days both Ana and the Bill wannabe are going to be moving in our general direction, that's par for the big golf course we are playing on. That doesn't mean they are going to hit us directly. Nobody alive, no forecast model can predict a landfall point with skill at this time. Only a broken clock that is right twice a day might, but that isn't skill. Many will try and there will be scare tactic conjecture, but we will try to keep it in proper perspective. Farrell
August 11, 2009 - 9:25 am TD #2 has formed. We knew August was going to be more active and here we go. No indication of any future threat to SW Florida yet. Farrell
July 21, 2009 - 9:12 am The long hot, dry summer continues at the coast.....A tropical wave will be nearby Wed and Thurs but chances are it will be too far to the East to increase our rain chances very much. Farrell
June 8, 2009 - 12:42 pm Look for drier AM's and hotter PM's this week....while I am on vaca! Farrell
May 20, 2009 - 7:52 am The upper level low over SW Florida has drawn in dry air, so it's back to hit or miss showers and storms. Farrell
May 18, 2009 - 10:52 am Surrounded by low pressure! A cold front to the north and a tropical wave to the SW and S equals a very unsettled weather pattern for the next few days. Keep the umbrella ready for rain anytime anywhere. Farrell
May 15, 2009 - 10:42 am A dry slot will be over us Saturday, so there should be fewer thunderstorms for 1 day. This will occur in advance of an approaching tropical wave. This tropical wave will help to boost clouds, showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Thursday.......essentially tropical moisture will be trapped over SW Florida between a cold front to the north and the tropical wave to our SE then South. A few models develop the wave into a depression, tropical or sub-tropical remains to be seen. Farrell
April 3, 2009 - 10:22 am Scattered rain today. It looks like the upper air pattern will evolve to bring a shot of cool air into the area Tuesday night. Lows near 50 degrees will be possible in town, some 40's inland. I'm off to the National Hurricane Conference next week. Farrell
March 2, 2009 - 11:22 am Ok, a couple of cold nights....near 40 degrees tonight/Tues AM, low 40's tomorrow night/ Wed AM. Back to near 80 degrees by Friday afternoon. Farrell
February 2, 2009 - 12:22 pm It is going to get COLD! Temperatures will be near freezing by Wednesday night/ Thursday morning along US41, a hard freeze inland. Farrell
January 29, 2009 - 12:42 pm Here comes another cold front. It will be mostly cloudy with scattered rain tomorrow......much cooler tomorrow night. Lows near 40 Saturday and Sunday Morning. Farrell
January 8, 2009 - 10:30 am It's been quiet lately...not much to write about, but here's something.....colder air arrives next Wednesday (Jan 14).....looks like lows in the 40's. Farrell
December 10, 2008 - 10:00 am It looks like SW Florida will get a squall line of rain and thunderstorms tomorrow AM. Windy and wet followed by a much cooler Friday. Farrell
November 6, 2008 - 11:00 am Tropical storm Paloma has formed. The good news for SW Florida is that since a cold front / new high pressure area is due late Saturday / early Sunday, Paloma should be steered away from our part of Florida. The expected turn to the northeast has not occured yet, but it should occur over the weekend. Farrell
October 30, 2008 - 11:20 am All is quiet in the tropics. An upper air disturbance will be nearby SW Florida this weekend......so there may be a shower or two around Sunday aznd Monday. Farrell
October 22, 2008 - 8:20 am An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean should drift northward, bringing clouds and rain to SW Florida Thursday night through Saturday morning. There is a chance that this area could develop into a tropical depression. Farrell
October 14, 2008 - 12:20 pm Omar and Nana are not coming here. Finally, a cold front arrives in SW Florida this weekend. Cooler nights and mornings should start on Sunday. Farrell
Sept 10, 2008 - 2:00 pm Now that Ike is moving away, I expect less wind and rain into the weekend. Farrell
Sept 6, 2008 - 10:00 am Ike will head into the Gulf, but SW Fl should not be affected by a direct hit. SW Fl will feel effects this next week as I expect Ike to slow down and be nearby to our west for several days. Rain, wind and high surf could be an issue. Farrell
Sept 5, 2008 - 1:30 pm It's too early to know how close Ike will come to SW Florida. A turn to the north, keeping Ike in the Atlantic seems unlikely. Looks like Ike is headed into the Gulf to me. Farrell
Sept 1, 2008 - 1:00 pm Hanna still a question mark. Staying in the Atlantic and not going into the Florida straights seems the more likely outcome, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how slow/fast Hanna moves and how weak/strong the High is that Hanna will react to. Right now it looks like a breezy, dry week for SW Florida. Farrell
August 28, 2008 - 9:20 am Interesting set-up underway. By the weekend, SW Florida will be inbetween 2 hurricanes...Gustav to the west and Hanna (expecting TD 8 to become Hanna today) to the east. Hanna may miss an opportunity to curve northward and wander/threaten Florida before a blocking high pressure moves out of the way or pushes Hanna towards Florida. Farrell
August 25, 2008 - 10:50 am Gustav will be born later today....South of the Dom. Repuplic. Farrell
August 23, 2008 Too early to get specific now, but a Tropical Wave near Trinidad could be much stronger and in the West/Central Caribbean late next week. Farrell
August 18, 2008 Well a more eastward turn of Fay is more likely now, minimizing the effects on SW Florida. Still, rainy, breezy w/ some surge in Collier....but not as bad as it could have been. My thanks to a great weather team at WINK, Scott Zedeker, Brian Monahan, Amanda McDonald and Janine Albert. Next to Charley this was our 2nd greatest moment. Farrell
August 16, 2008 Based on the steering currents, a stronger Fay tracks farther east, a weaker Fay tracks farther west. Interaction with land will determine strength which ultimately will affect the track. Still in no one knows land.....plenty of experts, but no one can honestly KNOW at this point. This is like predicting what a 2 year old is going to be when he/she grows up. You have no idea, but you will have a much better idea after high school graduation. For Fay, commencement ceremonies begin when Cuba is in it's rear view mirror (Sunday night / Monday morning?). Once away from land we should know where to put the bullseye. Farrell
August 15, 2008 Finally Fay. Expect a struggle as the center remains near land. As soon as it gets away from land, quick development is likely, probably into a major hurricane. Water is hot and upper air is near perfect for strengthening. Farrell
August 15, 2008 It looks to me that the core of the tropical wave is too close to land to allow significant development. Until it moves away from land and strenthens forecast models will not have much to grab onto so it's no wonder the models are putting "Fay" anywhere between the Gulf and the Bahamas. Pop some corn, watch and wait. Farrell
August 14, 2008 Expecting the recon mission to confirm a depression or TS Fay today or tomorrow. Worst case model for SW Florida is this one...puts system right on S. Florida on Tuesday. Most other credible models keep it in the Atlantic, farther east. Pop some corn, watch and wait. Farrell
August 13, 2008 The tropics are getting interesting. I see 3 disturbances over the Atlantic that have the potential to get stronger. The first one (farthest west) near 16.5N, 58.3W may end up near South Florida early next week. Pop some corn, watch and wait. Farrell
August 6, 2008 A upper level trough of low pressure puts us back into an anywhere anytime rainfall pattern Fri through Sunday.....some of the rain will fall early in the day and not wait until the late afternoon. The tropics look pretty quiet for the next week. Farrell
August 3, 2008 Edouard has formed to our west....not an issue for SW Florida. My hobby is following financial markets....guess is that oil futures go up now that a TS with the potential to be a H is in the gulf headed for the rigs. Right now Houston/Galveston area needs to get ready for a hit. Meanwhile, the northern extention of a weak tropical wave will be on us tomorrow, so we should get a little more rain. Farrell
July 30, 2008 Not much to say lately.....Should break out of this "earlier than usual" rainfall pattern bySunday. A weak tropical wave may be nearby on Monday/Tuesday. Farrell
July 21, 2008 Cristobal and Dolly will not bother SW Florida......good luck Brownsville. Looks like a fairly normal late July pattern this week in SW Florida. Farrell
July 12, 2008 Might get real soggy through Monday. A trough of low pressure is drifting in from North Florida. This will increase clouds and rain prospects early/late in the day. Farrell
July 9, 2008 Saharan dust is 1 mile over our head today, giving fewer/later storms and hotter temps. Bertha is not coming here....the rest of the tropics are quiet for now. I'll blog more when the action increases. Farrell
July 4, 2008 Looks like we have to wait until next week to see if Bertha is going to turn north or come closer to SW Florida. In the meantime a tropical wave south of the D. Republic may be on us by Monday. Farrell
June 3, 2008 No changes today....still looks like tropical wave brings more clouds and more rain to the SW Florida Sunday/Monday. I will be off by then. Farrell
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